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Post Info TOPIC: Covid-19 death distribution by age
Mike Harding


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Covid-19 death distribution by age
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Sorry to be a little morbid guys but better we understand the realities.

The other day Dr Norman Swan mentioned on ABC radio that he expected deaths in the 65+ age group to be around 10%, he was not wrong it seems.

However a friend speculated "Yes, but most of those will be the oldies, 80+".  Not so.

The following is a chart of deaths against age in Italy at 17-March-20 and is from a sample size of around 2500:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/

Total Covid-19 cases in Italy are about 28,000. So over fifties are accounting for around 75% of the deaths.

This gives my age group (65) a mortality rate around 6.5% or 1:15.

If someone said to me: "Yes, you can tow your caravan over that bridge but there is a 1 in 15 chance it will collapse and kill you... I'd find another way to go.

So if anyone still thinks Covid-19 is a beat-up think again and take all sensible precautions.

I'm heading bush.



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dorian


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Mike Harding wrote:

Sorry to be a little morbid guys but better we understand the realities.

The other day Dr Norman Swan mentioned on ABC radio that he expected deaths in the 65+ age group to be around 10%, he was not wrong it seems.

The following is a chart of deaths against age in Italy at 17-March-20 and is from a sample size of around 2500:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/

Total Covid-19 cases in Italy are about 28,000. So over fifties are accounting for around 75% of the deaths. 

No, the chart shows infection rates, not deaths.

"In fact, as the chart shows, about 75 percent of individuals infected with the virus was over 50 years old. By contrast, only one in four individuals who contracted the virus were between 19 and 50 years old."



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DMaxer


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Hi Mike. Hope you are keeping well.

One thing that I don't quite agree with is the comparison of 1 in 15. That applies to the people who first of all have to catch the virus.

Perhaps the better analysis is one's chances of catching the virus and then chances of survival.



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Mike Harding


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I was wrong.

Thank you Dorian and Dmaxer for pointing out my error.

Indeed that chart is for infections not deaths however all is not roses...

This Lancet article - 11th March:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30627-9/fulltext

Indicates deaths and age groups are of the order one may extrapolate from the graph of infections I incorrectly referenced.

We can haggle the numbers but it looks bad to me guys...?



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Whenarewethere


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From ABC a few days ago. Cases diagnosed. I'm in the second highest group blankstare

Screenshot_20200317-095332~2.png



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Cupie


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Whenarewethere wrote:

From ABC a few days ago. Cases diagnosed. I'm in the second highest group blankstare

Screenshot_20200317-095332~2.png

 Of course you would need to factor in such things as proportion of the population in each age group.



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dorian


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I agree with DMaxer. The most meaningful statistic is the death rate of infected persons by age group. But even that doesn't tell us the whole story. I'd like to know how many of the fatalities involved comorbidities. For example, if you're 80 and healthy, do you still have an 85% chance of survival, or is it more like 95%?

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DMaxer


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Off topic I know, well sort of off topic, with the restrictions on entry allowing only Australian citizens and those with permanent residency to come to Australia, how will that impact on immigration.

I suppose that those immigrating hve been approved for residency so it will not impact on them. I imagine it will be a bit hard on the agriculture industry that relies on backpackers for harvests.

Maybe a bit of seasonal work for the nomads who can top up the travelling funds.



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SouthernComfort


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DMaxer wrote:

Off topic I know, well sort of off topic, with the restrictions on entry allowing only Australian citizens and those with permanent residency to come to Australia, how will that impact on immigration.

I suppose that those immigrating hve been approved for residency so it will not impact on them. I imagine it will be a bit hard on the agriculture industry that relies on backpackers for harvests.

Maybe a bit of seasonal work for the nomads who can top up the travelling funds.

There will be plenty of takers for alternative jobs, including harvesting as things develop. Thousands are being laid off as various businesses and industries close, even temporarily. Travel and Tourism is the largest industry and employer in the world, and it's been decimated in this country and the world over. Coles had 36,000 applications for 5,000 new positions advertised, mostly for shelf stacking and the like. I'm tipping many will be from the T&T industry. Those thousands finding their livelihoods being ripped from under them are the real candidates for stress even if they never come anywhere near close to contracting the virus. I won't be worrying too much about where I sit on a bar chart depicting age.



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bgt


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I think you need to compare all the data. Age + those with an existing health issue. I'm one over 65 and with health issues. I'm booked for major surgery in 2 weeks. I'm betting on a cancellation. But even so I'm not overly concerned. Common sense is key.

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Aus-Kiwi


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Ok some humour . Not many passing over 100 !! Its not ALL doom and gloom !!

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Jaahn


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Hi smile

Well we are in the 70-79 age group and my wife has some existing health issues. We consider ourselves reasonably healthy but have decided not to push out "luck". We are currently living in different cities due to family reasons but had planned to meet up at Easter at a festival. Well that is not on and things look dire in many ways.disbelief

As we are in a high risk group we will be avoiding all the areas that are likely to be a high chance of catching it. So perhaps our quiet suburb at home is as good as anywhere to hang out. Probably some trips to the forest and down by a river for some quiet time is enough. Shopping is a problem as we have not stockpiled but we can live on very little like we used to. Before we had a good fridge we had less meat and used UHT milk and food that kept for a while. hmm But we will not be planning any big trip at the moment, because we think that is unwise. 

Cheers Jaahn

     



-- Edited by Jaahn on Friday 20th of March 2020 09:38:56 AM

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Whenarewethere


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Aus-Kiwi wrote:

Ok some humour . Not many passing over 100 !! Its not ALL doom and gloom !!

 They still have immunity from the last one!



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Whenarewethere


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A bit of history, North Head Quarantine Station.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Head_Quarantine_Station



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dogbox


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Whenarewethere wrote:

Aus-Kiwi wrote:

Ok some humour . Not many passing over 100 !! Its not ALL doom and gloom !!

 They still have immunity from the last one!




still got awhile till i'm safe hope i make it

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oldbloke


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I think its important that we keep it in context. Off the ABC web site. Numer of cases per 100,000 people.

 

Cases per 100k.jpg



-- Edited by oldbloke on Friday 20th of March 2020 11:36:12 AM

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JeffRae


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This website has a lot of data

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR11uz1_x6jXxQgT7jpJ5j4DwMI0NjyGtkXCeshZu6OvCwgA-5-__CeNB0M#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



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