WESTERN Australias north coast could be battered by as many as seven cyclones this season, with one likely to be severe, at category three or above.
The Bureau of Meteorology has warned two of those cyclones are likely to cross WAs northern coast this season, prompting authorities to urge Kimberley and Pilbara locals to be prepared.
Bureau senior forecaster Neil Bennett said there was a high prospect of more cyclones than last season, which was the least active on record, with only one, Category Two Stan, battering the WA coast at the end of January.
The BoM is expecting about seven cyclones, compared to an average of five, but most will fizzle out at sea.
However there is a significant risk at least one of the two cyclones expected to cross the coast will be severe at category three or above.
The Bureau of Meteorology released its outlook for the 2016-17 Cyclone Season, saying Australia should prepare for a return to a more active tropical cyclone season.
Climate Prediction Services Manager Dr Andrew Watkins said Australians should expect an average to above-average tropical cyclone season, due to neutral to weak La Niņa conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
The North Western Region covering WAs Kimberley and Pilbara which averages five tropical cyclones a season, is rated as a 63 per cent chance of being more active than the average year.
This year were experiencing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around Northern Australia, and this will help to fuel the tropical cyclone season ahead.
History shows that in an average season, about eleven cyclones form in the Australian region between November and April. On average, four of these will make landfall.
Last year had the lowest number of tropical cyclones on record with just three formed during the season.
Take care out there People.
K.J.
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From Coast to Coast, We'll see it all.......One Day
If you start worrying about what the weather might be in 1, 2, 3 or 6 months time you might as well bunker down, bolt the doors, cover the windows and vegetate in the bomb shelter.
Look at tomorrows forecast, hope they got it right and decide whether you need an umbrella or sunscreen. In the mean time, enjoy yourselves.
We lived in Dampier for a number of years and like all residents of coastal regions of the tropics you know that it is a fact of life that you could be directly in the path of a cyclone (or cyclones) in any given year. As a resident taking care for us meant listening to the warnings and taking advice on actions from the authorities. At least with cyclones and severe weather systems like the one to recently hit SA plenty of warnings are given. What probably should be more of a concern for RV owners or campers are the severe thunder or freak storms that can hit you anywhere with very little notice - no use worrying about it if it happens you just have to deal with it at the time. I think Thomas01 is spot on the shorter the weather forecast the more likely it is that it will actually occur. If you are really that worried plan your trip so that you are nowhere near the coastal regions of the tropics during the cyclone season and that will reduce the odds of being hit by one. Thanks anyhow kiwijims for the heads up maybe it's something that people want to keep in mind when planning the timing of their trips but I personally won't be doing anything differently.
You have the right Idea, and I agree, Keep well out of any Coastal area, even if there is only a slight prediction of a Cyclone happening,
We visited Exmouth a few years back , just after a Cyclone ripped through that town,
The damage it left behind was shocking, it's hard to imagine that wind can lift a couple of large fishing boats out of the water and deposit them on dry land hundreds of meters inland , just imagine what would happen to a Motor Home or Caravan !!!
K.J.
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From Coast to Coast, We'll see it all.......One Day
