Petrol price tipped to continue falling as Australian dollar rises and global oil prices drop

petengail · Guru

Petrol price tipped to continue falling as Australian dollar rises and global oil prices drop

Keith19837 · Senior Member

petengail wrote:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-28/petrol-prices-tipped-to-fall/5050264

G'day PetenGail. I heard the same thing on ABC radio Parliament question time. I really wonder about this. When our dollar recently hit US110 cents, we should have theoretically had a price drop in our fuel price as world prices are measured in US cents. Last time I was in the U.S. (a little over 12 months ago) I noticed that their fuel was US414c and US430c per gallon. Allowing a rough conversion of 4.5 litres per gallon this brings the price to about US80c per litre. At that time the AUDollar was buying a little over US90c. According to my rough calculations that means a litre of petrol was worth about AU95c. I appreciate that we're speaking of two separate economies but we do produce a large proportion of our own oil through the two Kingfisher (and other) rigs in Bass Strait and various rigs of the North West Coast. I believe it would be fair to say that my figures are on a rough parity. Now at the time we were paying about AU130c per litre, moving towards double the US comparative price. We are told that we pay world parity prices which means there is a large tax component in out pump price which is (so I'm lead to believe) to absorb any huge price swings if we were put in a position of having to import all our oil. O.K. so far so good, I understand the thinking here. What I don't understand is why our pump price didn't drop when our dollar exceeded the US dollar AND the price per barrel literally halved due to the world economic pressures. This 'double whammy' should have had at least a significant affect on our pump price yet it steadily rose. On top of this our pump price jumps within 48 hours of the world price going up. For the life of me I can't understand the economics of this! Obviously there's a reason that I'm not an economist.

Cupie · Guru

What we need is a Parliamentary inquiry .... or maybe a Fuel Prices Commissioner ...................

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

BTW .. Our local popular media has been saying that we are in for an upwards fuel price shock. And we all believe the popular media don't we?

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Keith19837 · Senior Member

Cupie wrote:
What we need is a Parliamentary inquiry .... or maybe a Fuel Prices Commissioner ...................
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

BTW .. Our local popular media has been saying that we are in for an upwards fuel price shock. And we all believe the popular media don't we?
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha
ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

Love it....

QueenKombi · Senior Member

Keith, a US gallon is actually equivalent to 3.785 litres. Not sure how that affects your figures. I'm not much good with mental arithmetic.

BasilBruhaha · Veteran Member

So that's why unleaded in Brisbane went up over $1.54 yesterday, go figure it was $1.37 yesterday morning. Diesel remains constantly around an extortionate $1.60.

It was interesting yesterday morning, I had an 8 cent Coles discount and filled my Corolla up at $1.38, I then noticed across the road Woolies with 4 cent discount was $1.37.

As I said later we went out and saw the prices had gone through the roof despite being told it was coming down.

One day a government will have a genuine look (royal commission?) into the petrol gouging industry.

countryroad · Senior Member

Our petrol I think is cheaper than UK so maybe we should be happy....instead of comparing to USA.

Anyone know other fuel prices from around the world, would be interesting to see.

I know I have no wish to live in USA....just to get cheaper fuel.

Just my thoughts.

rockylizard · Guru

Gday...

For what it's worth. No matter what the statistics show, we will always whinge, and always have whinged, about the price of our fuel.

Cheers - John

Wombat 280 · Guru

With the closure of Australian refineries wait for the price rise when it comes in as a finished product and we have no alternative Live in Port Macquarie and add 10 cents a lt to the highest price you can find and that's the PMQ price.

Cloak · Guru

Yeah bugger this... bring on an sola Landcruiser please.

RosieW · Guru

In a pig's eye!

Keith19837 · Senior Member

QueenKombi wrote:
Keith, a US gallon is actually equivalent to 3.785 litres. Not sure how that affects your figures. I'm not much good with mental arithmetic.

Good point, I forgot about the US 'short' gallon. It still makes their price a lot lower. My original point though, was that the global price is set in US dollars. When our dollar was up around US110c AND the price of a barrel of TAPPAS had dropped by over 30% we should have seen a drop aligned to the higher AUS dollar and the OPEC price drop. We don't seem to get these drops yet when the OPEC price per barrel goes up or our dollar drops against the greenback we certainly see the pump prise rise. Particularly as we produce (per capita) more of our own oil than the US does or UK or most other countries outside OPEC.

For what it's worth.

QueenKombi · Senior Member

Keith19837 wrote:
QueenKombi wrote:
Keith, a US gallon is actually equivalent to 3.785 litres. Not sure how that affects your figures. I'm not much good with mental arithmetic.
Good point, I forgot about the US 'short' gallon. It still makes their price a lot lower. My original point though, was that the global price is set in US dollars. When our dollar was up around US110c AND the price of a barrel of TAPPAS had dropped by over 30% we should have seen a drop aligned to the higher AUS dollar and the OPEC price drop. We don't seem to get these drops yet when the OPEC price per barrel goes up or our dollar drops against the greenback we certainly see the pump prise rise. Particularly as we produce (per capita) more of our own oil than the US does or UK or most other countries outside OPEC.
For what it's worth.

I do indeed agree with you Keith and you can't tell me it's not all a set-up to sting the Aussie motorist.

Diesel in my neck of the woods is currently sitting just .01 of a cent under $1.66. In Ballarat, the next closest filling point, it's 2 cents a litre cheaper. At least the diesel doesn't seem to fluctuate like petrol.

The Kombi, on the other hand, drinks 98 octane and last time I filled him up it was around $1.68 per litre cry

Cupie · Guru

rockylizard wrote:
Gday...
For what it's worth. No matter what the statistics show, we will always whinge, and always have whinged, about the price of our fuel.
Cheers - John

Thanks for the graph John... Puts things into perspective.

I note that it quotes Au fuel at Au$ 148. Which is not far off .. around 150 here (Bris) at present ie 142.57 $US

I'll have a look at the Australian Institute of Petroleum.

http://www.aip.com.au/index.htm

Very interesting .... Something to keep me amused for a couple of hours.

cheers .. G

johnnz · Senior Member

You also have to take into consideration the wages in the US. The minimum being about $7.50 per hour. I spend a lot of the year in the US so I know this to be true, an average worker at Walmart for instance gets $7.75 per hour, on top of this there is health insurance which for a family is getting beyond the average person. Hence Obamas affordable health care act he's trying to get through.

As a 'Grey Nomad' both in Australia and the US I'm more than familiar with fuel prices, it does vary from state to state. Also pensions in the US are far lower than ours in Australia. A US pensioner has to fork out for medicare which is deducted out their pension plus supplementary and prescription insurance, those three total about $250 per month.

Yes fuel may be cheaper in the US but when it's put in context with the wages and pensions, they are paying far more than the average Aussie.

John

milo · Guru

i think if i ever get my camper van, or what ever it will be diesel
is this better for long travel like a lap around aus??

Cupie · Guru

milo wrote:
i think if i ever get my camper van, or what ever it will be diesel
is this better for long travel like a lap around aus??

These days it's not an easy answer.

Factors include ...

Fuel consumption of the particular petrol & diesel vehicles that you are considering. Generally the diesel vehicle has better fuel economy.

Then there's the long term average price difference. Diesel is dearer.

The issue here is does the improved fuel economy outweigh the dearer fuel.

Then there are the maintenance costs.

The diesel option probably requires oil changes far more frequently than the petrol engine.

In the past it was argued that the diesel motor would outlast the petrol one. Not so clear these days of improved oils & engines. But then there's the impact of turbos on the engine life.

Of course I suppose that you need to consider the purchase & resale prices as well.

To further complicate the issue there is the Gas (factory or after market).

and on & on it goes .... Sorry that I can't help. But that's the reality.

I suppose that whatever you buy then just make sure that the engine (vehicle) is working well within its power range and that it is driven carefully & serviced regularly.

Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.