"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones." Albert Einstein
Mike Harding said
07:51 AM Oct 4, 2021
It is interesting; China is doing a lot of sabre rattling currently which may simply be intended to test Biden's backbone. As the USA has a defence treaty with Taiwan there must, if China increases its actions, come a point where the USA reacts if the treaty has any value and it may be where that point lies China is trying to discover.
After Obama allowed them to get away with developing a military base in the Spratly Islands they have become much emboldened but hopefully not enough to enter into war. I should not be surprised to see the Taiwanese shoot down an overflying Chinese aircraft and Goodness only knows what will happen then.
oldbloke said
10:08 AM Oct 4, 2021
Mike Harding wrote:
It is interesting; China is doing a lot of sabre rattling currently which may simply be intended to test Biden's backbone. As the USA has a defence treaty with Taiwan there must, if China increases its actions, come a point where the USA reacts if the treaty has any value and it may be where that point lies China is trying to discover.
After Obama allowed them to get away with developing a military base in the Spratly Islands they have become much emboldened but hopefully not enough to enter into war. I should not be surprised to see the Taiwanese shoot down an overflying Chinese aircraft and Goodness only knows what will happen then.
That's what I'm thinking China wants.
iana said
12:21 PM Oct 4, 2021
I wondered if the new sub deal was so that we could get computer chips and other essentials from USA non stop under water if required.
Bicyclecamper said
01:11 PM Oct 4, 2021
We will be at war in the next 12 months, if not sooner. The only reason China has taken over all the reefs and islands, was to have landbased Aircraft carriers. I saw the writing on the wall 5 years ago, and have been telling everyone about it since. I even wrote to the Prime Ministers office suggesting that Australia raise the size of army personelle to 200,000 thousand, and they wrote back and said, my views and worries were unfounded. The last job I did in the army for 12 months was Strategic Defense, and I told them this in the letter, but you know politicians, they know more then qualified practitioners in the art of war.
-- Edited by Bicyclecamper on Monday 4th of October 2021 01:23:30 PM
Whenarewethere said
01:22 PM Oct 4, 2021
Chinese are like Keeting, 'I'm going to do you slowly'
We just have to last another generation for another Chinese cival war with more dead than their last 60m & 40m.
Bicyclecamper said
01:39 PM Oct 4, 2021
Their will never be a civil war in China, unless Hong Kong rises up and get's support by others in mainland China. The reason is, the young people in China are extremely Nationalistic and very into the Communist government. Xi, has given them everything they want, and they don't see that they are not really free, because hey, the can leave their country anytime they want for studies, tourism and business. They have money, and wealth, this is not the norm for communism, it is the exception, so the young don't see a problem with their government and how they believe they are free to live their lives.
-- Edited by Bicyclecamper on Monday 4th of October 2021 01:48:50 PM
Whenarewethere said
02:06 PM Oct 4, 2021
The males need to leave as there is a 40m shortage of girls being turned off. Ironically keep the family name going.
Kev Pearce said
10:14 PM Oct 4, 2021
I too think war is inevitable. China has its eyes on Australia and why not? We have lots of resources and lots of space. It is frightening.
Tony LEE said
01:02 PM Oct 5, 2021
I dont think there is any treaty that requires the US to put their troops into battle with the Taiwan forces against china. Just requires the US to provide materiel assistance
oldbloke said
04:12 PM Oct 5, 2021
Tony LEE wrote:
I don't think there is any treaty that requires the US to put their troops into battle with the Taiwan forces against china. Just requires the US to provide materiel assistance
Yes, I believe your correct.
IMHO Xi will decide if we go to war. God help us. and I'm far from religious.
Bicyclecamper said
12:05 AM Oct 6, 2021
I went to sleep last night thinking about this problem, and prayed if we have a war, that all my friends kids, and my grandkids are not called up to fight it. But I also thought if they come after Australia, I would have no choice but to rejoin even it it was only Home defense forces.
DMaxer said
09:53 AM Oct 6, 2021
I don't think there is any likelihood of war with China. I think there will be a fair bit of sabre rattling concerning Taiwan and probably a few shots across the bows but nothing more. The absolute might of the military capability of the USA and its allies would mean total annihilation of China if ever there was a strike against the US mainland. China is dependent on the rest of the world for its oil, minerals and to a large degree its food. With the exception of the Russia, the trading nations it deals with all come under the heavy influence of the USA.
Most of the narrative at the moment is coming from a nervous prime minister and his cabinet mates who are looking at the next election and trying to work out ways to get another term. Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.
Mike Harding said
10:29 AM Oct 6, 2021
DMaxer wrote:
Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.
You mean he persuaded the Chinese to buzz Taiwan with 50 warplanes to boost his standing in the poles!?
He and Xi must be a lot closer than I realised.
DMaxer said
11:43 AM Oct 6, 2021
No Mike, I did not mean that. The Chinese have infiltrated Taiwan's airspace regularly for years. They also infiltrate the Philippines' coastal waters regularly. The Russians fly increasingly closer to the UK airspace limits and the UK send warships through the South China Sea. All part of the game.
These regular events are just getting a lot more publicity from the Government at the moment as they have absolutely nothing else going for them.
-- Edited by DMaxer on Wednesday 6th of October 2021 11:45:00 AM
Are We Lost said
04:45 PM Oct 7, 2021
So, you must mean the Taiwanese government is behind this for political purposes. Because they are the ones raising it as an issue, and it is being reported on the world stage. And recently, there was a joint naval exercise in the area with 17 nations participating. Certainly not a stunt by our governement.
Kebbin said
05:35 PM Oct 7, 2021
DMaxer wrote:
I don't think there is any likelihood of war with China. I think there will be a fair bit of sabre rattling concerning Taiwan and probably a few shots across the bows but nothing more. The absolute might of the military capability of the USA and its allies would mean total annihilation of China if ever there was a strike against the US mainland. China is dependent on the rest of the world for its oil, minerals and to a large degree its food. With the exception of the Russia, the trading nations it deals with all come under the heavy influence of the USA.
Most of the narrative at the moment is coming from a nervous prime minister and his cabinet mates who are looking at the next election and trying to work out ways to get another term. Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.
The absolute might of the US and her allies could not defeat the Taliban. China only lags in the air at the moment, which isn't going to be long before that too is overtaken.
They are no longer a 3rd world country, they are highly trained and eager. The large majority of Chinese believe the should take their place in the world as it's leader.
Living in the past and relying heavily on brute force won't work anymore.
-- Edited by Kebbin on Thursday 7th of October 2021 05:36:44 PM
Magnarc said
08:04 AM Oct 8, 2021
Firstly let me declare my cynicism with anything to do with politics. Could it be that the recent visit by Abbotticus to Taiwan was actually a government sanctioned one, to have a chat with them about this n' that without upsetting you know who?.
I note that a senior DFAT official was on hand at these meetings, if it was a "private" trip why was he there???? Was it to make sure that he didn't say anything that could upset someone, after all he was well known for the odd gaffe here and there.
Just a thought.
DMaxer said
10:50 AM Oct 8, 2021
A war against insurgents or guerilla forces is an entirely different concept to two nations at war. The navy of the USA and allies could completely isolate China without the need to land any troops on China's mainland. This would result in no food, oil or other essentials that China does not produce. Any attack on the USA mainland would result in China becoming a carpark.
This is not my guesswork. It is based on various papers prepared by military experts.
Buzz Lightbulb said
11:31 AM Oct 8, 2021
Kev Pearce wrote:
I too think war is inevitable. China has its eyes on Australia and why not? We have lots of resources and lots of space. It is frightening.
China will not invade Australia. It will only defend what it believes to be its sovereignty land, that is, Taiwan, under the one China ideology.
Collo said
04:50 PM Oct 8, 2021
About ten years ago we had a chinese student nurse stay with us for six weeks.(her father was a doctor back in China)
We raised the question of Taiwan to her one night....it flicked a switch and we got a ten minute tirade on why Taiwan belongs to China.
They are brainwashed to the Chinese way of thinking.
Other than that...she was a lovely girl and made great dumplings!!!
Collo.
landy said
09:35 PM Oct 8, 2021
Back in the mid eighties I was lucky enough to be sent on a business trip to Taiwan which involved me being chauffeured from one end to the other to source machinery.
At the time I was completely naive about the political situation hence I was there a couple of days before I started to notice all the camouflaged gun emplacements.
in the major towns.
It was a great trip though. Landy
DMaxer said
08:43 AM Oct 9, 2021
They have been threatening invasion since Chiang Kai-shek was pushed out by Mao back in 1949. It was then called Formosa and held by the Nationalists as their last bastion.
The Chinese know what would happen of they invaded Taiwan. Not only would they drag the USA into a conflict but they would also have the UK and India plus a few of the NATO forces to contend with. An invasion would result in a complete trade embargo and they rely on the outside world for oil, food and money. They will just play a long game with intimidation and sabre rattling to appease the masses at home to keep themselves in office and to give the military something to do besides beat up their own people.
They have had since 1949 to do something about it and have chosen not to even in times when the rest of the world probably wouldn't have cared. These days every nation is focused on them.
-- Edited by DMaxer on Saturday 9th of October 2021 08:46:06 AM
Buzz Lightbulb said
11:09 AM Oct 9, 2021
DMaxer wrote:
....
The Chinese know what would happen of they invaded Taiwan. Not only would they drag the USA into a conflict but they would also have the UK and India plus a few of the NATO forces to contend with.
...
-- Edited by DMaxer on Saturday 9th of October 2021 08:46:06 AM
As far as I understand the USA has never said what it would do if Taiwan was invaded. It's never said it would help defend Taiwan against China.
Mike Harding said
03:08 PM Oct 9, 2021
Buzz Lightbulb wrote:
As far as I understand the USA has never said what it would do if Taiwan was invaded. It's never said it would help defend Taiwan against China.
If it doesn't then the rest of us had better, very quickly, assume we are on our own with an aggressive China and maybe put some nukes on those new subs... or learn to speak Mandarin....
-- Edited by oldbloke on Saturday 9th of October 2021 10:37:26 PM
Buzz Lightbulb said
10:53 PM Oct 9, 2021
Mike Harding wrote:
If it doesn't then the rest of us had better, very quickly, assume we are on our own with an aggressive China and maybe put some nukes on those new subs... or learn to speak Mandarin....
I don't think that the USA has recognised Taiwan as a country. However, the USA, New Zealand, UK and other countries have agreed to support each other.
littledick said
09:02 AM Oct 10, 2021
DMaxer wrote:
A war against insurgents or guerilla forces is an entirely different concept to two nations at war. The navy of the USA and allies could completely isolate China without the need to land any troops on China's mainland. This would result in no food, oil or other essentials that China does not produce. Any attack on the USA mainland would result in China becoming a carpark.
This is not my guesswork. It is based on various papers prepared by military experts.
I agree. Also the fact that China always showing what fighting power they have, where as USA don't. I would hazard a good guess that the USA would more than match what China has!!
Dick.
-- Edited by littledick on Sunday 10th of October 2021 09:05:24 AM
Cupie said
12:39 PM Oct 10, 2021
With the Chinese economy on the brink & large sections of the national power grid failing, Xi may be indulging in a bit of the well used political trick of "look over here" "look over here", arousing their well grounded Nationalism to divert attention from the mismanagement of their Command Economy.
Of course our Politicians never do that do they? (Domino theory, Tampa, Children overboard, We'll decide who comes to our country etc etc).
BTW, with a majority of residents in our street already being of Chinese nationality perhaps the take over of Au is well advanced (of course they all say that they are not from mainland China) Our friendly Chinese local real estate agent is constantly in touch with an update on the number of (Chinese?) cash buyers with $1m+ in their pockets, that he has waiting to purchase. They are however, good neighbors & heavily involved in local politics & charities.
Brodie Allen said
11:58 AM Oct 14, 2021
DMaxer wrote:
They have been threatening invasion since Chiang Kai-shek was pushed out by Mao back in 1949. It was then called Formosa and held by the Nationalists as their last bastion.
The Chinese know what would happen of they invaded Taiwan. Not only would they drag the USA into a conflict but they would also have the UK and India plus a few of the NATO forces to contend with. An invasion would result in a complete trade embargo and they rely on the outside world for oil, food and money. They will just play a long game with intimidation and sabre rattling to appease the masses at home to keep themselves in office and to give the military something to do besides beat up their own people.
They have had since 1949 to do something about it and have chosen not to even in times when the rest of the world probably wouldn't have cared. These days every nation is focused on them.
-- Edited by DMaxer on Saturday 9th of October 2021 08:46:06 AM
Good sense here.
It's my opinion that they will white-ant us from our internals on the inside - takeover
of power grids, ports like Darwin and Newcastle, etc, etc, land and other building infrastructure and the like.
And financial blackmail - embargoes and the like, belt and road (thanks Dan) and so much of our political
people under their blackmail spell.
Thank goodness that the gumbiment knocked them back on the 5G roll-out!!
And not to mention VIRAL warfare!!!
-- Edited by Brodie Allen on Thursday 14th of October 2021 12:01:19 PM
It's slowly getting hotter. Typical of China intimidating, threatening Tiawan. Bastards.
I'm beginning to think a war is inevitable. Xi has made it clear he will take it and can't lose "face" by backing down.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-04/ ... /100511294
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."
Albert Einstein
It is interesting; China is doing a lot of sabre rattling currently which may simply be intended to test Biden's backbone. As the USA has a defence treaty with Taiwan there must, if China increases its actions, come a point where the USA reacts if the treaty has any value and it may be where that point lies China is trying to discover.
After Obama allowed them to get away with developing a military base in the Spratly Islands they have become much emboldened but hopefully not enough to enter into war. I should not be surprised to see the Taiwanese shoot down an overflying Chinese aircraft and Goodness only knows what will happen then.
That's what I'm thinking China wants.
We will be at war in the next 12 months, if not sooner. The only reason China has taken over all the reefs and islands, was to have landbased Aircraft carriers. I saw the writing on the wall 5 years ago, and have been telling everyone about it since. I even wrote to the Prime Ministers office suggesting that Australia raise the size of army personelle to 200,000 thousand, and they wrote back and said, my views and worries were unfounded. The last job I did in the army for 12 months was Strategic Defense, and I told them this in the letter, but you know politicians, they know more then qualified practitioners in the art of war.
-- Edited by Bicyclecamper on Monday 4th of October 2021 01:23:30 PM
Chinese are like Keeting, 'I'm going to do you slowly'
We just have to last another generation for another Chinese cival war with more dead than their last 60m & 40m.
Their will never be a civil war in China, unless Hong Kong rises up and get's support by others in mainland China. The reason is, the young people in China are extremely Nationalistic and very into the Communist government. Xi, has given them everything they want, and they don't see that they are not really free, because hey, the can leave their country anytime they want for studies, tourism and business. They have money, and wealth, this is not the norm for communism, it is the exception, so the young don't see a problem with their government and how they believe they are free to live their lives.
-- Edited by Bicyclecamper on Monday 4th of October 2021 01:48:50 PM
The males need to leave as there is a 40m shortage of girls being turned off. Ironically keep the family name going.
I too think war is inevitable. China has its eyes on Australia and why not? We have lots of resources and lots of space. It is frightening.
Yes, I believe your correct.
IMHO Xi will decide if we go to war. God help us. and I'm far from religious.
I don't think there is any likelihood of war with China. I think there will be a fair bit of sabre rattling concerning Taiwan and probably a few shots across the bows but nothing more. The absolute might of the military capability of the USA and its allies would mean total annihilation of China if ever there was a strike against the US mainland. China is dependent on the rest of the world for its oil, minerals and to a large degree its food. With the exception of the Russia, the trading nations it deals with all come under the heavy influence of the USA.
Most of the narrative at the moment is coming from a nervous prime minister and his cabinet mates who are looking at the next election and trying to work out ways to get another term. Nothing like a bit of fear mongering to help the incumbents.
You mean he persuaded the Chinese to buzz Taiwan with 50 warplanes to boost his standing in the poles!?
He and Xi must be a lot closer than I realised.
No Mike, I did not mean that. The Chinese have infiltrated Taiwan's airspace regularly for years. They also infiltrate the Philippines' coastal waters regularly. The Russians fly increasingly closer to the UK airspace limits and the UK send warships through the South China Sea. All part of the game.
These regular events are just getting a lot more publicity from the Government at the moment as they have absolutely nothing else going for them.
-- Edited by DMaxer on Wednesday 6th of October 2021 11:45:00 AM
The absolute might of the US and her allies could not defeat the Taliban. China only lags in the air at the moment, which isn't going to be long before that too is overtaken.
They are no longer a 3rd world country, they are highly trained and eager. The large majority of Chinese believe the should take their place in the world as it's leader.
Living in the past and relying heavily on brute force won't work anymore.
-- Edited by Kebbin on Thursday 7th of October 2021 05:36:44 PM
Firstly let me declare my cynicism with anything to do with politics. Could it be that the recent visit by Abbotticus to Taiwan was actually a government sanctioned one, to have a chat with them about this n' that without upsetting you know who?.
I note that a senior DFAT official was on hand at these meetings, if it was a "private" trip why was he there???? Was it to make sure that he didn't say anything that could upset someone, after all he was well known for the odd gaffe here and there.
Just a thought.
A war against insurgents or guerilla forces is an entirely different concept to two nations at war. The navy of the USA and allies could completely isolate China without the need to land any troops on China's mainland. This would result in no food, oil or other essentials that China does not produce. Any attack on the USA mainland would result in China becoming a carpark.
This is not my guesswork. It is based on various papers prepared by military experts.
China will not invade Australia. It will only defend what it believes to be its sovereignty land, that is, Taiwan, under the one China ideology.
About ten years ago we had a chinese student nurse stay with us for six weeks.(her father was a doctor back in China)
We raised the question of Taiwan to her one night....it flicked a switch and we got a ten minute tirade on why Taiwan belongs to China.
They are brainwashed to the Chinese way of thinking.
Other than that...she was a lovely girl and made great dumplings!!!
Collo.
At the time I was completely naive about the political situation hence I was there a couple of days before I started to notice all the camouflaged gun emplacements.
in the major towns.
It was a great trip though. Landy
They have been threatening invasion since Chiang Kai-shek was pushed out by Mao back in 1949. It was then called Formosa and held by the Nationalists as their last bastion.
The Chinese know what would happen of they invaded Taiwan. Not only would they drag the USA into a conflict but they would also have the UK and India plus a few of the NATO forces to contend with. An invasion would result in a complete trade embargo and they rely on the outside world for oil, food and money. They will just play a long game with intimidation and sabre rattling to appease the masses at home to keep themselves in office and to give the military something to do besides beat up their own people.
They have had since 1949 to do something about it and have chosen not to even in times when the rest of the world probably wouldn't have cared. These days every nation is focused on them.
-- Edited by DMaxer on Saturday 9th of October 2021 08:46:06 AM
As far as I understand the USA has never said what it would do if Taiwan was invaded. It's never said it would help defend Taiwan against China.
If it doesn't then the rest of us had better, very quickly, assume we are on our own with an aggressive China and maybe put some nukes on those new subs... or learn to speak Mandarin....
The latest from Xi.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/china-vows-reunification-with-taiwan-xi-jinping-says/cefc79e2-ad01-4654-8caf-b5710aed3f8c
-- Edited by oldbloke on Saturday 9th of October 2021 10:37:26 PM
I don't think that the USA has recognised Taiwan as a country. However, the USA, New Zealand, UK and other countries have agreed to support each other.
I agree. Also the fact that China always showing what fighting power they have, where as USA don't. I would hazard a good guess that the USA would more than match what China has!!
Dick.
-- Edited by littledick on Sunday 10th of October 2021 09:05:24 AM
With the Chinese economy on the brink & large sections of the national power grid failing, Xi may be indulging in a bit of the well used political trick of "look over here" "look over here", arousing their well grounded Nationalism to divert attention from the mismanagement of their Command Economy.
Of course our Politicians never do that do they? (Domino theory, Tampa, Children overboard, We'll decide who comes to our country etc etc).
BTW, with a majority of residents in our street already being of Chinese nationality perhaps the take over of Au is well advanced (of course they all say that they are not from mainland China) Our friendly Chinese local real estate agent is constantly in touch with an update on the number of (Chinese?) cash buyers with $1m+ in their pockets, that he has waiting to purchase. They are however, good neighbors & heavily involved in local politics & charities.
Good sense here.
It's my opinion that they will white-ant us from our internals on the inside - takeover
of power grids, ports like Darwin and Newcastle, etc, etc, land and other building infrastructure and the like.
And financial blackmail - embargoes and the like, belt and road (thanks Dan) and so much of our political
people under their blackmail spell.
Thank goodness that the gumbiment knocked them back on the 5G roll-out!!
And not to mention VIRAL warfare!!!
-- Edited by Brodie Allen on Thursday 14th of October 2021 12:01:19 PM