The transition to the future or are Electric Vehicles more likely to gain a niche market in built up areas and some country towns for locals who do not drive far?
This year several new EV models will be released including second generation Nissan Leaf, a smaller car seating 4 occasionally 5 people that will retail for around $50,000 plus on road costs. And that must include recharging equipment, as with battery electric lawn mowers and other equipment.
It is timely for motorists to think about EV before the barrage of sales and marketing advertising commences. For example, Nissan claims Leaf will travel 270 kms on a fully charged battery pack. Not really, that is a theoretically possible range in perfect conditions and brand new battery pack. I read that on average EV range is two thirds of theoretical range, Leaf therefore 178 kms. Around town probably a bit more range.
The downside is;
How many passengers on board, luggage, average speed (suburban or highway), how many hills, wind conditions, air conditioning on, windscreen wipers on, lights on.
Of course the more a buyer pays the better the battery pack capacity and therefore theoretical maximum range, subject to battery pack condition. Ergon Energy reported that a typical driver travels 15,000 km a year and a battery pack would need replacement every 7 years (or if EV traded in a battery condition penalty imposed on price offered). I understand that for a Tesla S model EV with theoretical range of 450 kms the cost is currently about $12,000 removed and replaced. So battery cost must be considered a fuel cost. The upside is lower fuel cost electricity and battery replacement considered costs compared to a similar Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle. And lower servicing cost.
But using the Nissan Leaf example, $50,000 plus is about twice the price of an equivalent ICEV so overall costs considered, is EV cheaper to own and operate?
What happens if fuel tax revenue declines to a point where electricity is taxed by government when recharging an EV?
I understand that EV can be recharged from a standard home 240 volt power point but requires many hours, fully charged 10 hours maybe. An 80% charge a couple of hours. Or at a commercial fast charge point 80% in 40 minutes to 60 minutes. I would not be happy waiting for 80% recharges on a country drive every 178 kms approximately. Or suffering the anxiety as the low battery pack warning light appears.
NRMA Open Road Magazine contains a Nissan Leaf road test report, interesting but did not convince me to buy one. But I live in the country and when I did calculations of where I regularly travel to and from the car would not suit my purposes, even ignoring towing. Open Road reported that EV today is roughly comparable to the ICEV of 1937 compared to 2019 in development stage. A good car, well built, comfortable but handicapped by battery range, recharging time, replacement cost, not as user friendly and useful as ICEV for country people or city people who travel far by road at times.
I can drive my diesel 4WD up to 850 kms before refuelling in several minutes. And know that obtaining fuel will not be a problem, and carry spare fuel in remote areas. This is why the original circa 1900 electric car sales dropped sharply when Henry Ford released his Model T ICEV. Despite New York City and others in the US providing recharging points for EV.
I would be interested in reading what others think about EV verses ICEV.
Finally, in Australia 70-80 per cent of electricity is generated by coal fired power stations, and to a lesser extent gas fired and diesel, with hydro about 10 per cent and pumped hydro not cost effective when competing with fossil fuel generators. Wind turbines and solar would not be a business proposition without Renewable Energy Target and related consumer paid with government imposition subsidies for the profit of the owner operators. And one of the world's highest electricity pricing. So called renewables, unreliable, intermittent supply, technology is more about virtue signalling than what is best technology to secure essential base load and peak demand electricity. Only up to (when the wind doesn't blow, when the solar radiation is insufficient) 5 per cent of the world's largest interconnected electricity grid is supplied by unreliable energy .... it has been written that a wind turbine is like buying a vehicle knowing it will operate 3 days out of 7, but not knowing which days.
My point being that our mostly fossil fuel supplied electricity recharging EV is inefficient use of energy, burning liquid fossil fuel in ICEV is far more efficient. And here in Australia the emissions reduced via EV are produced at most of the power stations.
I read a while ago that if in Canada EV were the fleet only 2-3 homes in every 10 homes could recharge at the same time from a local grid. And our government (and Labor Opposition) is pushing for more unreliable energy and penalising reliable generators. And at the same time has allocated $300 million to leasing firms to promote EV to fleet operators.
It is indeed a mad world.
ps; I read recently that the world's energy usage accounting for all sources including oil and gas, coal, nuclear, hydro that as a percentage of total wind and solar are about 0.36 per cent. In world electricity supply about or around 1.0 per cent.
-- Edited by Knight on Monday 14th of January 2019 11:04:32 AM
-- Edited by Knight on Monday 14th of January 2019 11:48:27 AM
SouthernComfort said
12:29 PM Jan 14, 2019
And yet, it will happen. We have many serious infrastructure upgrades to attend to PDQ, energy supply a major one. All we need is a proactive govt. able to stay in office long enough to do something meaningful, starting now
Sadly it's already too late for local vehicle manufacturing that couldn't even build diesel let alone think about EV. As we now only import cars, and as vehicle manufacturing countries progessively move to EV (ICEV in the interim while until we're weened off IC altogether), our hand will eventually be forced. Some countries have committed to dump IC by 2040, for us it is only a matter of when and not if. As the supply of EV's increase the prices will drop to affordable levels (as flat screen tv's did).
Most of us might not be affected, but our kids and younger certainly will.
-- Edited by SouthernComfort on Monday 14th of January 2019 12:30:43 PM
rockylizard said
12:45 PM Jan 14, 2019
Gday...
The only thing certain about change is that there will be change.
More than 100 years ago the internal combustion motor vehicle was not at all popular -
But that didnt stop public commentators from alternately lampooning and lamenting the arrival of the loud, smoke-belching technology. And the government stepped in to keep things under control with its Locomotive Acts, the first of which was passed in 1861. The most well-known of these came about in 1865. It limited the speed of self-propelled vehicles to 2 mph (3.2 km/hr) in the city and 4 mph (6.4 km/h) in the country. It also stipulated that every vehicle must have a man walking in front of it, either waving a red flag or holding a lantern, so as to warn on-comers.
Which shows you where society stood in relation to the horseless carriage at the dawn of the automobile age. When the first vehicles powered by combustion engines appeared in the late-19th and early-20th Centuries, they provoked strong reactions - some of them violent.
Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. H. G. Wells
Cheers - John
Mobi Condo said
12:46 PM Jan 14, 2019
Interesting thread here. I will try to be brief and realistic and yet it will still appear that I may be a "Nay Sayer" re EV's.
Observed an EV at Normanville on the "electric Highway" from Adelaide down to the Fleuirieur (SP?) Peninsula between Christmas and New Year. It was recharging for at least 30 minutes! Imagine the furore when several want to do likewise!
OK recharge O/N at home. Then when the % of EV's increases considering the poor electric reliability of our city I wonder just how much draw of power will happen and we all lose power to cook, have showers, light our abodes and in other words carry out the daily necessities. The new urban problem of power poor will be seen.
I love the thought of EV's BUT not until the infrastructure to provide for them is provided.
Knight said
01:11 PM Jan 14, 2019
Hi Southern Comfort, you commented on manufacturing industry, specifically the demise of our motor vehicle manufacturing industry. I suppose you know that federal government encouraged that industry to get established starting with Holden Body Works becoming General Motors Holden assembling and partly producing the Holden car based on US GM Chevrolet. From memory there have been several businesses established and closed including: GMH, Ford and Toyota the last the go.
The beginning of the end was in 1975 when Australia signed the UN Lima Agreement agreeing to transfer most manufacturing industry to developing nations over time. Early 1980s import duty/tariffs were phased out exposing local manufacturers to international competition and then increasingly higher wages and on costs, too many government regulations and compliance costs, rising cost of energy and in more recent years carbon tax (since removed) and then renewable energy target of 28% lowered to 23% raising the pricing of electricity to world's highest level from being one of the lowest, attracting aluminium smelters, steel blast furnaces, cement manufacturers and many others when the world's largest electricity grid was constructed and growing to meet demand.
Today Australia has become uncompetitive as a base for most manufacturers. I read a couple of years ago that, figures rounded off to the nearest dollar, the total cost for employing a skilled person here (all operating costs x number of employees, not only wages) amounted to A$600 per day. In the US the cost was A$400 a day. And in India $200 a day.
But to put the cost into perspective, South Korea produces steel using Australian Iron Ore and Coal but also has above average remuneration standard. So the problem is obviously not wages, but wages would be one of the considerations for any business looking for a manufacturing base.
It frustrates me that Australia has vast reserves of minerals and energy, skilled people, did have competitively priced and reliable electricity supplies and gas (and are now exporting more natural gas than previous world champion exporter Qatar) but are held back by government red and green tape regulations. Also an uncompetitive rate of company tax.
The Lucky Country, Donald Horne described Australia in his book. Lucky to get ahead despite the politicians. Looking both sides of Parliament.
Whenarewethere said
03:17 PM Jan 14, 2019
18 months ago we did major maintenance replacing the meter switch board & power back to the grid for our block of units (part of a ten year long term maintenance plan for our block of units). (Disclaimer: getting rid of asbestos for reducing long term insurance costs & get the meters replaced before privatization of meters which dramatically increased meter replacement costs in December 2018 (if you now need to upgrade or need to do maintenance you need to go through each electricity retailer for each unit)).
None of us have electric vehicles but 3 out of 4 installed 3 phase to our garages ready for electric cars.
The day will come when we can buy petrol, diesel, gas & electriciy from a FUEL outlet! & when the country gets a bit greener in the long run, buying electric fuel will be more economical than fossil fuel.
Maybe I will be buying an electric wheelchair by then, but buying electricity will be better all round in the long run & it will be available everywhere. Maybe some of the remote fuel stations will be generating electricity via diesel but it will be well & truely in the minority of situations well & truly offset by the rest of the fuel generation.
If going remote a generator & fuel might still be the only solution for the next decade but it will change as quick as digital cameras destroyed the conventional photographic industy! How long did it actually take you to change from film to digital & when did you last use film?
Whenarewethere said
04:15 PM Jan 14, 2019
Sorry double post.
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Monday 14th of January 2019 04:19:55 PM
SouthernComfort said
05:00 PM Jan 14, 2019
Mobi Condo wrote:
Interesting thread here. I will try to be brief and realistic and yet it will still appear that I may be a "Nay Sayer" re EV's. Observed an EV at Normanville on the "electric Highway" from Adelaide down to the Fleuirieur (SP?) Peninsula between Christmas and New Year. It was recharging for at least 30 minutes! Imagine the furore when several want to do likewise!
OK recharge O/N at home. Then when the % of EV's increases considering the poor electric reliability of our city I wonder just how much draw of power will happen and we all lose power to cook, have showers, light our abodes and in other words carry out the daily necessities. The new urban problem of power poor will be seen.
I love the thought of EV's BUT not until the infrastructure to provide for them is provided.
Under current conditions that's all fair enough. The required infrastructure, EV vehicle technology and cost effectiveness will all grow in conjunction. One part can't develop without the other. The first foray into something new on this scale is expensive, inconvenient and largely ineffective for a while, just as it was when the internal combustion engine hit the market 120 years go. All the elements will develop over the coming decades, but I doubt a perfect and complete infrastructure will be in place before it becomes necessary to invest in an EV.
Whenarewethere said
05:15 PM Jan 14, 2019
Being the first is always more expensive & has a few more obstacles! https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/perth-to-adelaide-revisited.103083/
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Monday 14th of January 2019 05:32:18 PM
There is no doubt that EVs are coming. When and how fast is the discussion IMHO. I have driven a couple and PHEVs too. Easy to drive, ridiculously easy in fact. But for GNs they not be the quick answer. But manufacturers are working on electric trucks now. Just for interest in Newcastle our new toy tram is "battery" operated with no overhead wires. Actually supercapitor storage, and it recharges while at the passenger stops. There is a new technology to be explored as it can be extremely fast charged if the power is available.
The OP has given a lot of negatives about our power supply and coal but the point is IMHO there is no one who will build a new coal station as it will not compete on a commercial rate with the other sources. There are few subsidies for the renewals currently either and they will go. We could have used plenty of gas but stupid policies gave it away and tried to make fracking the answer. So even cheap vehicle LPG had the tax increased to make it less attractive to use. Now it is on the way out instead of a good cheap transition fuel for lots of things.
Who votes for the clowns we have. No future thinking, and no long term policies. But I will not go on or the thread will get shut down. Electricity will power more and more but just how it will work is yet to be seen. Who heard of Tesla a couple of years ago. Now a major player. If you look into transport in China and now India following, they will lead the way because they see the pollution and the death rate the ICE has caused and other stuff too, and will develop answers while we just talk about it here.
Meanwhile solar is still free and cannot be taxed off the grid so buy more and batteries and use it. There is plenty more where that comes from Some electric car owners I know drive free when they charge them from their solar and battery storage.
Jaahn
rockylizard said
10:11 AM Jan 15, 2019
Gday...
It is excellent to foster and nurture discussion on the potential future of our lifestyle, culture, environment, technology.
However, perhaps we need to look at in a 'reverse' way.
Look back 30 years and note just what things you are using today, regularly, that were not available back then.
Or if available, how much have they progressed.
It is very difficult to use today's knowledge to determine just what will be possible, and/or available, in 30 years time.
Cheers - John
Santa said
10:20 AM Jan 15, 2019
I very much doubt the current crop of Grey Nomads need concern themselves unduly over the affect of electric vehicles on their lives.
SouthernComfort said
11:54 AM Jan 15, 2019
I think that was my observation too, BUT it's good to know some of us are interested in the impact on our offspring and younger generations.
2-Smiths said
12:19 PM Jan 15, 2019
Good thread.
I agree with the people who are saying "Not yet, but soon".
I suspect many of us will have that moment where we go "Gee...it seems like only yesterday these EVs were viewed as "fringe"...now they're everywhere!" Followed by "Hmmm...when was the last time you saw a petrol-powered vehicle?"
A few years back (~2010), the Mrs and I had a house built. Had a decent back-to-grid PV system installed as part of the deal. Cost a bomb (although partially offset by the very generous at the time Gross Feed-in tariffs). Fast forward 8 years, and we're in the process of having a system installed at our place in coastal QLD. No gross feed-in tariff anymore (all net feed-in these days for "new" entrants). But this system will be almost fully self-contained. PV panels, large hybrid inverter, and 10KW of battery. While we'll still be "grid-connected", we believe we'll draw little if anything from it, and may even be able to fully defray the supply charges.
8 years ago, such a system would have been well outside making economic sense, on cost alone.
Today, the whole thing is ~$6K cheaper than the "standard" (and smaller) back to grid system we had installed back then.
I suspect the same will be true of EVs generally in the future.
As someone noted, the question is how the Tax/Excise and other revenue mix will adapt to suit.
Whenarewethere said
01:19 PM Jan 15, 2019
The way to go now is solar with batteries in the home. I'm in a unit so solar is a long way off but could install batteries.
A decade ago I bought a large 3kva UPS with additional batteries as we had constant blackouts for hours. I could keep working while everyone in the neighbourhood was without power. Also watch TV, could even boil a cup of water, but that did chew up a bit of backup.
I can see the benefits of being independent, no different to having solar & batteries for camping.
We have 415 instantaneous hot water, if one has a shower or charges a car I can't see how a government can tax at different rates.
We have 415 in the garage & 415 for the hot water, all 20 amps per phase, & one meter for the whole Unit, & 240 volts comes from the 415 so there is no way the government could slice & divide tax rates. If they did I just plug the car into the shower supply or swap over the kettle for a slower charge, just boiling a lot of water so to speak!
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 01:30:57 PM
2-Smiths said
01:57 PM Jan 15, 2019
Whenarewethere wrote:
The way to go now is solar with batteries in the home. I'm in a unit so solar is a long way off but could install batteries.
A decade ago I bought a large 3kva UPS with additional batteries as we had constant blackouts for hours. I could keep working while everyone in the neighbourhood was without power. Also watch TV, could even boil a cup of water, but that did chew up a bit of backup.
I can see the benefits of being independent, no different to having solar & batteries for camping.
We have 415 instantaneous hot water, if one has a shower or charges a car I can't see how a government can tax at different rates.
We have 415 in the garage & 415 for the hot water, all 20 amps per phase, & one meter for the whole Unit, & 240 volts comes from the 415 so there is no way the government could slice & divide tax rates. If they did I just plug the car into the shower supply or swap over the kettle for a slower charge, just boiling a lot of water so to speak!
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 01:30:57 PM
I hear what you're saying (figuratively, you understand ;) ), but the question re the "re-framing" of Tax revenue was more about how they replace that which is lost (Fuel excises for example, as more people move toward EVs).
Perhaps - and this could go toward your example - they hike existing taxes on consumption (GST), or introduce new taxes on alternative energy use?
Whenarewethere said
02:39 PM Jan 15, 2019
Unfortunately the bulk of the people who have no choice but to drive to work are the ones who cannot afford an electric car.
I am waiting for the all electric 4x4 capable of towing 3 tonne only to see the distance it can travel before a recharge.
Sorry, just woke up...was having a GREEN nightmare!
Santa said
06:13 PM Jan 15, 2019
This from the SMH a few days ago, had to happen.
All the oldies installing them for short term gain, no problem, leave it to future generations to sort out.
The world's problems are not provision of cleaner/cheaper forms of fuel, it's over population, and its not going to improve.
"Thousands of ageing rooftop solar panels represent a toxic time-bomb and major economic waste unless Australia acts swiftly to keep them out of landfill, conservationists and recyclers say."
"Thousands of ageing rooftop solar panels represent a toxic time-bomb and major economic waste unless Australia acts swiftly to keep them out of landfill, conservationists and recyclers say."
By cherry picking that particular line to quote from the article it makes it sound like solar panels are particularly bad in terms of waste and recycling, whereas they are no different to any other product in this respect, and in fact are better than many as they last 30 years and the bulk is made up of aluminium and glass which are eminently recyclable. So, for balance I'd like to quote another line from the same article...
Its a systemic problem that [applies to] a whole range of products, he said, saying schemes were badly needed for paint, batteries, floor coverings, commercial furniture and many types of electronic waste."
In general Australia has a very poor record on recycling, and relies heavily on poorer countries doing the dirty work for us, literally by shipping our most unpleasant and toxic waste offshore. If you read the whole article I don't see it as demonizing solar in particular, but rather a wake up call for us taking a more proactive approach to waste recycling generally. Unfortunately it's not a politically popular message, because while most people will say they are for recycling in theory, the truth is that they are too deep into throw-away consumerism and would baulk at the inconvenience and cost of recycling when it came to it.
Santa said
08:01 PM Jan 15, 2019
My point exactly, didn't see the need to extrapolate, I'm sure most can see the ongoing trend.
Jaahn said
09:03 PM Jan 15, 2019
Hi
My direct observation is that good solar panels might last longer than 30 years. I have two on my MH which must be 20+ years old and work well and not much less power than specs !! But what dangerous materials are in them. The copper strips and solder !! Scare mongering for media use IMHO.
There have been a percentage of crap panels put on roofs in the rush to make a quick quid. These have been failing in a couple of years. The sellers of these should be pursued and made to pay. But there are no prosecutions for dodgey work or poor practices. But currently the solar sellers do not reuse good systems that work OK but just rip them off and fit bigger systems and batteries and there is no attempt to reuse the existing panels. GNs should be grabbing them for their use and saving the problem disposing of them !
The batteries are another story and should be controlled and recycled like all similar things. They should be worth money to recycle them.
Jaahn
-- Edited by Jaahn on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 09:09:26 PM
Knight said
07:51 AM Jan 16, 2019
This article on fuel includes Electric Vehicles and is informative;
My direct observation is that good solar panels might last longer than 30 years. I have two on my MH which must be 20+ years old and work well and not much less power than specs !! But what dangerous materials are in them. The copper strips and solder !! Scare mongering for media use IMHO.
There have been a percentage of crap panels put on roofs in the rush to make a quick quid. These have been failing in a couple of years. The sellers of these should be pursued and made to pay. But there are no prosecutions for dodgey work or poor practices. But currently the solar sellers do not reuse good systems that work OK but just rip them off and fit bigger systems and batteries and there is no attempt to reuse the existing panels. GNs should be grabbing them for their use and saving the problem disposing of them !
The batteries are another story and should be controlled and recycled like all similar things. They should be worth money to recycle them.
Jaahn
-- Edited by Jaahn on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 09:09:26 PM
Yep.
The panels going into our place have a 25 year warranty on them, and should be good for at least 30. You'd hope that by then we'd have the means to properly and sustainably recycle the components...
While the premise of the post re: over-population is essentially correct, the question is more around "Which materials can economically be utilised, AND eventually recycled in a sustainable fashion, in order to meet the ongoing energy needs of an increasing population?"
Whenarewethere said
04:07 PM Jan 16, 2019
Santa wrote:
"Thousands of ageing rooftop solar panels represent a toxic time-bomb and major economic waste unless Australia acts swiftly to keep them out of landfill, conservationists and recyclers say."
This old array is at the originals Halls Creek. There is a black cylinder on either side which when heated by the sun causes the array to change balance & follow the sun.
The transition to the future or are Electric Vehicles more likely to gain a niche market in built up areas and some country towns for locals who do not drive far?
This year several new EV models will be released including second generation Nissan Leaf, a smaller car seating 4 occasionally 5 people that will retail for around $50,000 plus on road costs. And that must include recharging equipment, as with battery electric lawn mowers and other equipment.
It is timely for motorists to think about EV before the barrage of sales and marketing advertising commences. For example, Nissan claims Leaf will travel 270 kms on a fully charged battery pack. Not really, that is a theoretically possible range in perfect conditions and brand new battery pack. I read that on average EV range is two thirds of theoretical range, Leaf therefore 178 kms. Around town probably a bit more range.
The downside is;
How many passengers on board, luggage, average speed (suburban or highway), how many hills, wind conditions, air conditioning on, windscreen wipers on, lights on.
Of course the more a buyer pays the better the battery pack capacity and therefore theoretical maximum range, subject to battery pack condition. Ergon Energy reported that a typical driver travels 15,000 km a year and a battery pack would need replacement every 7 years (or if EV traded in a battery condition penalty imposed on price offered). I understand that for a Tesla S model EV with theoretical range of 450 kms the cost is currently about $12,000 removed and replaced. So battery cost must be considered a fuel cost. The upside is lower fuel cost electricity and battery replacement considered costs compared to a similar Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle. And lower servicing cost.
But using the Nissan Leaf example, $50,000 plus is about twice the price of an equivalent ICEV so overall costs considered, is EV cheaper to own and operate?
What happens if fuel tax revenue declines to a point where electricity is taxed by government when recharging an EV?
I understand that EV can be recharged from a standard home 240 volt power point but requires many hours, fully charged 10 hours maybe. An 80% charge a couple of hours. Or at a commercial fast charge point 80% in 40 minutes to 60 minutes. I would not be happy waiting for 80% recharges on a country drive every 178 kms approximately. Or suffering the anxiety as the low battery pack warning light appears.
NRMA Open Road Magazine contains a Nissan Leaf road test report, interesting but did not convince me to buy one. But I live in the country and when I did calculations of where I regularly travel to and from the car would not suit my purposes, even ignoring towing. Open Road reported that EV today is roughly comparable to the ICEV of 1937 compared to 2019 in development stage. A good car, well built, comfortable but handicapped by battery range, recharging time, replacement cost, not as user friendly and useful as ICEV for country people or city people who travel far by road at times.
I can drive my diesel 4WD up to 850 kms before refuelling in several minutes. And know that obtaining fuel will not be a problem, and carry spare fuel in remote areas. This is why the original circa 1900 electric car sales dropped sharply when Henry Ford released his Model T ICEV. Despite New York City and others in the US providing recharging points for EV.
I would be interested in reading what others think about EV verses ICEV.
Finally, in Australia 70-80 per cent of electricity is generated by coal fired power stations, and to a lesser extent gas fired and diesel, with hydro about 10 per cent and pumped hydro not cost effective when competing with fossil fuel generators. Wind turbines and solar would not be a business proposition without Renewable Energy Target and related consumer paid with government imposition subsidies for the profit of the owner operators. And one of the world's highest electricity pricing. So called renewables, unreliable, intermittent supply, technology is more about virtue signalling than what is best technology to secure essential base load and peak demand electricity. Only up to (when the wind doesn't blow, when the solar radiation is insufficient) 5 per cent of the world's largest interconnected electricity grid is supplied by unreliable energy .... it has been written that a wind turbine is like buying a vehicle knowing it will operate 3 days out of 7, but not knowing which days.
My point being that our mostly fossil fuel supplied electricity recharging EV is inefficient use of energy, burning liquid fossil fuel in ICEV is far more efficient. And here in Australia the emissions reduced via EV are produced at most of the power stations.
I read a while ago that if in Canada EV were the fleet only 2-3 homes in every 10 homes could recharge at the same time from a local grid. And our government (and Labor Opposition) is pushing for more unreliable energy and penalising reliable generators. And at the same time has allocated $300 million to leasing firms to promote EV to fleet operators.
It is indeed a mad world.
ps; I read recently that the world's energy usage accounting for all sources including oil and gas, coal, nuclear, hydro that as a percentage of total wind and solar are about 0.36 per cent. In world electricity supply about or around 1.0 per cent.
-- Edited by Knight on Monday 14th of January 2019 11:04:32 AM
-- Edited by Knight on Monday 14th of January 2019 11:48:27 AM
And yet, it will happen. We have many serious infrastructure upgrades to attend to PDQ, energy supply a major one. All we need is a proactive govt. able to stay in office long enough to do something meaningful, starting now
Sadly it's already too late for local vehicle manufacturing that couldn't even build diesel let alone think about EV. As we now only import cars, and as vehicle manufacturing countries progessively move to EV (ICEV in the interim while until we're weened off IC altogether), our hand will eventually be forced. Some countries have committed to dump IC by 2040, for us it is only a matter of when and not if. As the supply of EV's increase the prices will drop to affordable levels (as flat screen tv's did).
Most of us might not be affected, but our kids and younger certainly will.
-- Edited by SouthernComfort on Monday 14th of January 2019 12:30:43 PM
Gday...
The only thing certain about change is that there will be change.
More than 100 years ago the internal combustion motor vehicle was not at all popular -
But that didnt stop public commentators from alternately lampooning and lamenting the arrival of the loud, smoke-belching technology. And the government stepped in to keep things under control with its Locomotive Acts, the first of which was passed in 1861. The most well-known of these came about in 1865. It limited the speed of self-propelled vehicles to 2 mph (3.2 km/hr) in the city and 4 mph (6.4 km/h) in the country. It also stipulated that every vehicle must have a man walking in front of it, either waving a red flag or holding a lantern, so as to warn on-comers.
Which shows you where society stood in relation to the horseless carriage at the dawn of the automobile age. When the first vehicles powered by combustion engines appeared in the late-19th and early-20th Centuries, they provoked strong reactions - some of them violent.
https://pilcrow.squarespace.com/stories/car-hatred
I doubt I will see in my (now) short lifetime internal combustion vehicles disappear completely.
However, technology leaps forward now at incredible pace. What is seen as an 'insurmountable' problem will be solved before the ink dries.
http://theemergingfuture.com/speed-technological-advancement-ten-years.htm
Adapt or perish, now as ever, is nature's inexorable imperative. H. G. Wells
Cheers - John
Observed an EV at Normanville on the "electric Highway" from Adelaide down to the Fleuirieur (SP?) Peninsula between Christmas and New Year. It was recharging for at least 30 minutes! Imagine the furore when several want to do likewise!
OK recharge O/N at home. Then when the % of EV's increases considering the poor electric reliability of our city I wonder just how much draw of power will happen and we all lose power to cook, have showers, light our abodes and in other words carry out the daily necessities. The new urban problem of power poor will be seen.
I love the thought of EV's BUT not until the infrastructure to provide for them is provided.
Hi Southern Comfort, you commented on manufacturing industry, specifically the demise of our motor vehicle manufacturing industry. I suppose you know that federal government encouraged that industry to get established starting with Holden Body Works becoming General Motors Holden assembling and partly producing the Holden car based on US GM Chevrolet. From memory there have been several businesses established and closed including: GMH, Ford and Toyota the last the go.
The beginning of the end was in 1975 when Australia signed the UN Lima Agreement agreeing to transfer most manufacturing industry to developing nations over time. Early 1980s import duty/tariffs were phased out exposing local manufacturers to international competition and then increasingly higher wages and on costs, too many government regulations and compliance costs, rising cost of energy and in more recent years carbon tax (since removed) and then renewable energy target of 28% lowered to 23% raising the pricing of electricity to world's highest level from being one of the lowest, attracting aluminium smelters, steel blast furnaces, cement manufacturers and many others when the world's largest electricity grid was constructed and growing to meet demand.
Today Australia has become uncompetitive as a base for most manufacturers. I read a couple of years ago that, figures rounded off to the nearest dollar, the total cost for employing a skilled person here (all operating costs x number of employees, not only wages) amounted to A$600 per day. In the US the cost was A$400 a day. And in India $200 a day.
But to put the cost into perspective, South Korea produces steel using Australian Iron Ore and Coal but also has above average remuneration standard. So the problem is obviously not wages, but wages would be one of the considerations for any business looking for a manufacturing base.
It frustrates me that Australia has vast reserves of minerals and energy, skilled people, did have competitively priced and reliable electricity supplies and gas (and are now exporting more natural gas than previous world champion exporter Qatar) but are held back by government red and green tape regulations. Also an uncompetitive rate of company tax.
The Lucky Country, Donald Horne described Australia in his book. Lucky to get ahead despite the politicians. Looking both sides of Parliament.
18 months ago we did major maintenance replacing the meter switch board & power back to the grid for our block of units (part of a ten year long term maintenance plan for our block of units). (Disclaimer: getting rid of asbestos for reducing long term insurance costs & get the meters replaced before privatization of meters which dramatically increased meter replacement costs in December 2018 (if you now need to upgrade or need to do maintenance you need to go through each electricity retailer for each unit)).
None of us have electric vehicles but 3 out of 4 installed 3 phase to our garages ready for electric cars.
The day will come when we can buy petrol, diesel, gas & electriciy from a FUEL outlet! & when the country gets a bit greener in the long run, buying electric fuel will be more economical than fossil fuel.
Maybe I will be buying an electric wheelchair by then, but buying electricity will be better all round in the long run & it will be available everywhere. Maybe some of the remote fuel stations will be generating electricity via diesel but it will be well & truely in the minority of situations well & truly offset by the rest of the fuel generation.
If going remote a generator & fuel might still be the only solution for the next decade but it will change as quick as digital cameras destroyed the conventional photographic industy! How long did it actually take you to change from film to digital & when did you last use film?
Sorry double post.
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Monday 14th of January 2019 04:19:55 PM
Under current conditions that's all fair enough. The required infrastructure, EV vehicle technology and cost effectiveness will all grow in conjunction. One part can't develop without the other. The first foray into something new on this scale is expensive, inconvenient and largely ineffective for a while, just as it was when the internal combustion engine hit the market 120 years go. All the elements will develop over the coming decades, but I doubt a perfect and complete infrastructure will be in place before it becomes necessary to invest in an EV.
Being the first is always more expensive & has a few more obstacles! https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/perth-to-adelaide-revisited.103083/
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Monday 14th of January 2019 05:32:18 PM
Hi
There is no doubt that EVs are coming. When and how fast is the discussion IMHO. I have driven a couple and PHEVs too. Easy to drive, ridiculously easy in fact. But for GNs they not be the quick answer. But manufacturers are working on electric trucks now. Just for interest in Newcastle our new toy tram is "battery" operated with no overhead wires. Actually supercapitor storage, and it recharges while at the passenger stops. There is a new technology to be explored as it can be extremely fast charged if the power is available.
The OP has given a lot of negatives about our power supply and coal but the point is IMHO there is no one who will build a new coal station as it will not compete on a commercial rate with the other sources. There are few subsidies for the renewals currently either and they will go. We could have used plenty of gas but stupid policies gave it away and tried to make fracking the answer. So even cheap vehicle LPG had the tax increased to make it less attractive to use. Now it is on the way out instead of a good cheap transition fuel for lots of things.
Who votes for the clowns we have. No future thinking, and no long term policies. But I will not go on or the thread will get shut down. Electricity will power more and more but just how it will work is yet to be seen. Who heard of Tesla a couple of years ago. Now a major player. If you look into transport in China and now India following, they will lead the way because they see the pollution and the death rate the ICE has caused and other stuff too, and will develop answers while we just talk about it here.
Meanwhile solar is still free and cannot be taxed off the grid so buy more and batteries and use it. There is plenty more where that comes from
Some electric car owners I know drive free when they charge them from their solar and battery storage.
Jaahn
Gday...
It is excellent to foster and nurture discussion on the potential future of our lifestyle, culture, environment, technology.
However, perhaps we need to look at in a 'reverse' way.
Look back 30 years and note just what things you are using today, regularly, that were not available back then.
Or if available, how much have they progressed.
It is very difficult to use today's knowledge to determine just what will be possible, and/or available, in 30 years time.
Cheers - John
I very much doubt the current crop of Grey Nomads need concern themselves unduly over the affect of electric vehicles on their lives.
I agree with the people who are saying "Not yet, but soon".
I suspect many of us will have that moment where we go "Gee...it seems like only yesterday these EVs were viewed as "fringe"...now they're everywhere!" Followed by "Hmmm...when was the last time you saw a petrol-powered vehicle?"
A few years back (~2010), the Mrs and I had a house built. Had a decent back-to-grid PV system installed as part of the deal. Cost a bomb (although partially offset by the very generous at the time Gross Feed-in tariffs). Fast forward 8 years, and we're in the process of having a system installed at our place in coastal QLD. No gross feed-in tariff anymore (all net feed-in these days for "new" entrants). But this system will be almost fully self-contained. PV panels, large hybrid inverter, and 10KW of battery. While we'll still be "grid-connected", we believe we'll draw little if anything from it, and may even be able to fully defray the supply charges.
8 years ago, such a system would have been well outside making economic sense, on cost alone.
Today, the whole thing is ~$6K cheaper than the "standard" (and smaller) back to grid system we had installed back then.
I suspect the same will be true of EVs generally in the future.
As someone noted, the question is how the Tax/Excise and other revenue mix will adapt to suit.
The way to go now is solar with batteries in the home. I'm in a unit so solar is a long way off but could install batteries.
A decade ago I bought a large 3kva UPS with additional batteries as we had constant blackouts for hours. I could keep working while everyone in the neighbourhood was without power. Also watch TV, could even boil a cup of water, but that did chew up a bit of backup.
I can see the benefits of being independent, no different to having solar & batteries for camping.
We have 415 instantaneous hot water, if one has a shower or charges a car I can't see how a government can tax at different rates.
We have 415 in the garage & 415 for the hot water, all 20 amps per phase, & one meter for the whole Unit, & 240 volts comes from the 415 so there is no way the government could slice & divide tax rates. If they did I just plug the car into the shower supply or swap over the kettle for a slower charge, just boiling a lot of water so to speak!
-- Edited by Whenarewethere on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 01:30:57 PM
I hear what you're saying (figuratively, you understand ;) ), but the question re the "re-framing" of Tax revenue was more about how they replace that which is lost (Fuel excises for example, as more people move toward EVs).
Perhaps - and this could go toward your example - they hike existing taxes on consumption (GST), or introduce new taxes on alternative energy use?
Unfortunately the bulk of the people who have no choice but to drive to work are the ones who cannot afford an electric car.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-01-15/electric-cars-breaking-australia-roads-reform-road-user-charging/9235564
I am waiting for the all electric 4x4 capable of towing 3 tonne only to see the distance it can travel before a recharge.
Sorry, just woke up...was having a GREEN nightmare!
This from the SMH a few days ago, had to happen.
All the oldies installing them for short term gain, no problem, leave it to future generations to sort out.
The world's problems are not provision of cleaner/cheaper forms of fuel, it's over population, and its not going to improve.
"Thousands of ageing rooftop solar panels represent a toxic time-bomb and major economic waste unless Australia acts swiftly to keep them out of landfill, conservationists and recyclers say."
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/waste-crisis-looms-as-thousands-of-solar-panels-reach-end-of-life-20190112-p50qzd.html
By cherry picking that particular line to quote from the article it makes it sound like solar panels are particularly bad in terms of waste and recycling, whereas they are no different to any other product in this respect, and in fact are better than many as they last 30 years and the bulk is made up of aluminium and glass which are eminently recyclable. So, for balance I'd like to quote another line from the same article...
Its a systemic problem that [applies to] a whole range of products, he said, saying schemes were badly needed for paint, batteries, floor coverings, commercial furniture and many types of electronic waste."
In general Australia has a very poor record on recycling, and relies heavily on poorer countries doing the dirty work for us, literally by shipping our most unpleasant and toxic waste offshore. If you read the whole article I don't see it as demonizing solar in particular, but rather a wake up call for us taking a more proactive approach to waste recycling generally. Unfortunately it's not a politically popular message, because while most people will say they are for recycling in theory, the truth is that they are too deep into throw-away consumerism and would baulk at the inconvenience and cost of recycling when it came to it.
My point exactly, didn't see the need to extrapolate, I'm sure most can see the ongoing trend.
Hi
My direct observation is that good solar panels might last longer than 30 years. I have two on my MH which must be 20+ years old and work well and not much less power than specs !! But what dangerous materials are in them. The copper strips and solder !! Scare mongering for media use IMHO.
There have been a percentage of crap panels put on roofs in the rush to make a quick quid. These have been failing in a couple of years. The sellers of these should be pursued and made to pay. But there are no prosecutions for dodgey work or poor practices.
But currently the solar sellers do not reuse good systems that work OK but just rip them off and fit bigger systems and batteries and there is no attempt to reuse the existing panels. GNs should be grabbing them for their use and saving the problem disposing of them !
The batteries are another story and should be controlled and recycled like all similar things. They should be worth money to recycle them.
Jaahn
-- Edited by Jaahn on Tuesday 15th of January 2019 09:09:26 PM
chiefio.wordpress.com/2019/01/15/getting-gas-and-electrons-across-america/
Yep.
The panels going into our place have a 25 year warranty on them, and should be good for at least 30. You'd hope that by then we'd have the means to properly and sustainably recycle the components...
While the premise of the post re: over-population is essentially correct, the question is more around "Which materials can economically be utilised, AND eventually recycled in a sustainable fashion, in order to meet the ongoing energy needs of an increasing population?"
This old array is at the originals Halls Creek. There is a black cylinder on either side which when heated by the sun causes the array to change balance & follow the sun.
450kW 3 minute 100 km charge
https://reneweconomy.com.au/porsche-achieves-3-minute-recharge-at-450kw-ev-charging-station-13430/