The Elephant in the room is that all future technology will require more Copper, Lithium, Silica, Cobalt, gold and silver, etc. ie more toxic mines. The solar panels and future electronic products, after useful life will create a massive disposal problem.
Who is planning for this aspect of the future?
Tony Bev said
05:19 PM Dec 22, 2018
Could not open it Goldfinger, as they want me to download Windows Outlook, which I declined
aussie_paul said
06:37 PM Dec 22, 2018
The Future
Auto repair shops will go away.
A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!
Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, theyve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts locations.
Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.
Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!
Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?
A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don't see it coming.Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With todays smart phones, who even has a camera these days?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Forget the book, Future Shock, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!
Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer; its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.
Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustions engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighbourhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Cities will have much cleaner air as well. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
And its just getting ramped up.
Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.
WELCOME TO TOMORROW it actually arrived a few years ago.
Aussie Paul.
-- Edited by aussie_paul on Saturday 22nd of December 2018 06:38:45 PM
Goldfinger said
09:31 PM Dec 22, 2018
Thanks for putting that up for me Paul,....looks like its a waste of time buying a new Diesel 4WD....its progress they claim...we will all have a better life....I'll settle for the old one we had in the best time period Australia will ever see...its sad for our kids/grandkids..........Hoo Roo
LLD said
09:35 PM Dec 22, 2018
Adding to The Epistle of St Aussie-Paul Dont forget the Swiss watch industry. From tick-tock to Dick Tracy.
Very good item Paul.
Blues Man said
08:46 AM Dec 23, 2018
$hit Paul ,that a dismal picture you paint but it's possibly all true when you think about it.
Not sure whether i like it or not. That's the technological world we live in.
Ron-D said
09:59 AM Dec 23, 2018
And to think when some of us were little tv did not exist,and look where it is now ,imagine what children being born now will see.great information Paul and accurate.
Goldfinger said
10:05 AM Dec 23, 2018
Paul displayed my above OP link for this subject...so no need to open my link....thanks....interesting subject....
Tony Bev said
11:55 AM Dec 23, 2018
After reading the article, kindly put up by Aussie Paul, I agree that we are living in the best time, but there are also interesting times ahead
I remember in the 1960's
An old retiring Engineer, told me that he was envious of my generation, as we would have the best of everything, and that we would be able to travel to the stars
He had seen the change from horse and cart, to the motor car
He had also seen the change from sailing, to engine powered ships
He had seen the change from candles to electric lights
He had seen the birth of the airplane, etc
Tony Bev said
12:09 PM Dec 23, 2018
Possum3 wrote:
The Elephant in the room is that all future technology will require more Copper, Lithium, Silica, Cobalt, gold and silver, etc. ie more toxic mines. The solar panels and future electronic products, after useful life will create a massive disposal problem.
Who is planning for this aspect of the future?
No one is planning for the future, Possum
I give you some historic facts, and then rest me case yer onner
1946, men demobed from the armed forces, married and started raising families No one in authority made any future plans
1947, not enough maternity beds, in the hospitals, I like others, was born at home No one in authority made any future plans
1952, not enough classrooms for the new intake of school children, I and many others, were packed in like sardines No one in authority made any future plans
1962, school children entering the workforce, not enough work, I and many others, were unable to find immediate employment, (and not through lack of trying) No one in authority made any future plans
2012, official retirement age of those born in 1947, not enough money for every old age pensioner, I and many others, do not receive a pension
I can therefore conclude, that for the future, "No one in authority will make any future plans"
Possum3 said
04:31 PM Dec 23, 2018
I believe you are right Tony - Up until now lack of effective planning has mainly caused moderate shortages and discomforts.
The toxic wastes of the future is going to create larger problems than Nuclear Waste. I dread the outlook of my Grandkids.
mixo said
05:28 PM Dec 23, 2018
bring it on I say..
Can't wait, wish I was 30 years younger.
We do live in the best times and its only going to get better.
mixo
the rocket said
10:07 PM Dec 23, 2018
mixo wrote:
bring it on I say..
Can't wait, wish I was 30 years younger.
We do live in the best times and its only going to get better.
mixo
I am with you mixo. I live for today and look forward to tomorrow. Merry christmas everyone.
Desert Dweller said
05:22 AM Dec 24, 2018
We won't have to worry about it we'll all be dead.
The Belmont Bear said
06:20 AM Dec 24, 2018
Interesting reading and no doubt a lot of it will eventuate but the way I look at it is that I have enough to worry about in life without needing to add things that haven't' happened yet. When you think about it if the people who lived in the 1800s had made a list of what they thought would happen in the 20th century they wouldn't have even been close.
Ditto Rocket thats the way I look at it as well.....
Cheers
BB
-- Edited by The Belmont Bear on Monday 24th of December 2018 06:21:52 AM
Roy E said
09:41 AM Dec 24, 2018
Larry (Goldfinger),
That is an interesting article but where do you think all the extra electricity needed for the millions of electric cars (etc) will come from? Solar panels? Wind power stations? Gas powered power stations or coal powered power stations? My guess is coal powered. The "new generation of harmless, non-polluting, coal powered" ones as coal is abundant and cheap and cost always wins out over all other considerations.
Cheers,
Roy.
Desert Dweller said
10:16 AM Dec 24, 2018
Roy E wrote:
Larry (Goldfinger), That is an interesting article but where do you think all the extra electricity needed for the millions of electric cars (etc) will come from? Solar panels? Wind power stations? Gas powered power stations or coal powered power stations? My guess is coal powered. The "new generation of harmless, non-polluting, coal powered" ones as coal is abundant and cheap and cost always wins out over all other considerations. Cheers, Roy.
Have a look at these beauties! One of my proudest achievements in life.
I worked as a Structural Design Draftsman with the State Electricity Commission of Victoria.
I drew many of the construction drawings for these chimneys & cooling towers.
Nothing will ever be as reliable or generate as much power as a good coal fired power station.
This original article was headed from 2020+......not long to go....most of us should be 'reasonably good to go' for another 10 years....?..approx. 3,500 more sleeps including holidays and weekends....value every day we have...my diesel will see me out...providing I can still buy diesel.......don't know if my finances will hold out that long though...Hoo Roo
Tony Bev said
09:13 PM Dec 24, 2018
Roy E wrote:
Larry (Goldfinger), That is an interesting article but where do you think all the extra electricity needed for the millions of electric cars (etc) will come from? Solar panels? Wind power stations? Gas powered power stations or coal powered power stations? My guess is coal powered. The "new generation of harmless, non-polluting, coal powered" ones as coal is abundant and cheap and cost always wins out over all other considerations. Cheers, Roy.
My guess Roy, and it is only a guess
When people realise that those in authority had not made plans, for the increase in electricity, from the grid, to charge all the electric vehicles
The people will place solar panels on their own roof, and also have a large house battery to become self sufficient, from the electrical grid
After we all become self sufficient
The authorities will then step in and say
"We have made our future plans, everyone must place solar panels on their roof, to feed back into the electric grid"
Around that point in time, the only reason for the electric grid
Will be to run the air conditioners, at parliament house, to counteract all the hot air
LLD said
05:51 PM Dec 26, 2018
People in authority are too scared to make plans beyond their term in Government (Public Office) or the term of their contract (govt dept heads or private industry). We used to make long term plans (eg The Button Plan for Motor Industry) that all sides bought into but now everyone is too short term. I think Japan is one of the few countries that make long term plans (10, 50, 100 year plans).
I was at Primary school in late 1950s - early 1960s. We were all baby-boomers and imports that were resettled from all sorts of European conflicts. It caught out the education authorities. The school I was at was the biggest primary school in Victoria. In Gr2 we suddenly had 72 kids all in the same room. This went on for another year. One teacher but about 2 or 3 trainee teachers wandering round making sure that those struggling got help. The head mistress would often come in and help. Occasionally the head mistress would take the top 20 kids to a smaller classroom for some more challenging tasks. I was one of them and we were actually removed as we got bored easily and disrupted the others. A new school was built in a new suburb nearby and the school was split in 2. So we came to school one day and there was only 36 kids. Multi-culturism never existed. We all got along without be told too. Nobody gave a rodent's rectum about where you were born, if your English was bad, if you took home the curdled 1/3 pint free milk (to make cheese I later found out), if you went to ethnic classes on Saturdays to learn folk dancing etc.
spida said
10:39 PM Dec 29, 2018
What worries me is what happens when all the computerised bits dont work - I really believe that 'they' are out there designing something to disable everything computerised. Planes fall out of skies, all our vehicles stall (other than the few old ones left), but no fuel can be pumped. our houses wont work.... A recent power outage in Taupo NZ meant that all the shops had to shut. Tills dont work, no Eftpos (who carries cash?) cannot open their doors etc etc..... Jut stop and think about everything that relies on a computer & electricity - water, power, even phones will be useless if the towers are knocked out - and then they run out of power so who you gonna call..... Too much haste dashing towards the 'modern world'. Will kids be able to light a fire, find water/food/shelter when we are all gone. Even with solar it relies on circuit boards..... I fear we have lost the old 'get on with it' attitude. A disaster strikes and all you hear is 'why is the government not doing something'!
Happy New Year everyone :)
LLD said
11:32 PM Dec 29, 2018
The only service that I could not do without is drinkable water. Have alternatives to most other things for a short to medium failure in which time a cunning plan would be devised. Id never standby and rely on The Government. Camping when you are self sufficient is probably a good rehearsal.
Planning for the future should current technology fail (no power) is an interesting exercise.
We lived in the best period Australia will ever know..IMO..Hoo Roo
Who is planning for this aspect of the future?
The Future
Auto repair shops will go away.
A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!
Gas stations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, theyve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts locations.
Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.
Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!
Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?
A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.
The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With todays smart phones, who even has a camera these days?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
Forget the book, Future Shock, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.
UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!
Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer; its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.
Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustions engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.
Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighbourhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Cities will have much cleaner air as well. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.
Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
And its just getting ramped up.
Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.
Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.
WELCOME TO TOMORROW it actually arrived a few years ago.
Aussie Paul.
-- Edited by aussie_paul on Saturday 22nd of December 2018 06:38:45 PM
Very good item Paul.
$hit Paul ,that a dismal picture you paint but it's possibly all true when you think about it.
Not sure whether i like it or not. That's the technological world we live in.
And to think when some of us were little tv did not exist,and look where it is now ,imagine what children being born now will see.great information Paul and accurate.
I remember in the 1960's
An old retiring Engineer, told me that he was envious of my generation, as we would have the best of everything, and that we would be able to travel to the stars
He had seen the change from horse and cart, to the motor car
He had also seen the change from sailing, to engine powered ships
He had seen the change from candles to electric lights
He had seen the birth of the airplane, etc
No one is planning for the future, Possum
I give you some historic facts, and then rest me case yer onner
1946, men demobed from the armed forces, married and started raising families
No one in authority made any future plans
1947, not enough maternity beds, in the hospitals, I like others, was born at home
No one in authority made any future plans
1952, not enough classrooms for the new intake of school children, I and many others, were packed in like sardines
No one in authority made any future plans
1962, school children entering the workforce, not enough work, I and many others, were unable to find immediate employment, (and not through lack of trying)
No one in authority made any future plans
2012, official retirement age of those born in 1947, not enough money for every old age pensioner, I and many others, do not receive a pension
I can therefore conclude, that for the future, "No one in authority will make any future plans"
I believe you are right Tony - Up until now lack of effective planning has mainly caused moderate shortages and discomforts.
The toxic wastes of the future is going to create larger problems than Nuclear Waste. I dread the outlook of my Grandkids.
Can't wait, wish I was 30 years younger.
We do live in the best times and its only going to get better.
mixo
I am with you mixo. I live for today and look forward to tomorrow. Merry christmas everyone.
Interesting reading and no doubt a lot of it will eventuate but the way I look at it is that I have enough to worry about in life without needing to add things that haven't' happened yet. When you think about it if the people who lived in the 1800s had made a list of what they thought would happen in the 20th century they wouldn't have even been close.
Ditto Rocket thats the way I look at it as well.....
Cheers
BB
-- Edited by The Belmont Bear on Monday 24th of December 2018 06:21:52 AM
That is an interesting article but where do you think all the extra electricity needed for the millions of electric cars (etc) will come from? Solar panels? Wind power stations? Gas powered power stations or coal powered power stations? My guess is coal powered. The "new generation of harmless, non-polluting, coal powered" ones as coal is abundant and cheap and cost always wins out over all other considerations.
Cheers,
Roy.
Have a look at these beauties! One of my proudest achievements in life.
I worked as a Structural Design Draftsman with the State Electricity Commission of Victoria.
I drew many of the construction drawings for these chimneys & cooling towers.
Nothing will ever be as reliable or generate as much power as a good coal fired power station.
My guess Roy, and it is only a guess
When people realise that those in authority had not made plans, for the increase in electricity, from the grid, to charge all the electric vehicles
The people will place solar panels on their own roof, and also have a large house battery to become self sufficient, from the electrical grid
After we all become self sufficient
The authorities will then step in and say
"We have made our future plans, everyone must place solar panels on their roof, to feed back into the electric grid"
Around that point in time, the only reason for the electric grid
I was at Primary school in late 1950s - early 1960s. We were all baby-boomers and imports that were resettled from all sorts of European conflicts. It caught out the education authorities. The school I was at was the biggest primary school in Victoria. In Gr2 we suddenly had 72 kids all in the same room. This went on for another year. One teacher but about 2 or 3 trainee teachers wandering round making sure that those struggling got help. The head mistress would often come in and help. Occasionally the head mistress would take the top 20 kids to a smaller classroom for some more challenging tasks. I was one of them and we were actually removed as we got bored easily and disrupted the others. A new school was built in a new suburb nearby and the school was split in 2. So we came to school one day and there was only 36 kids. Multi-culturism never existed. We all got along without be told too. Nobody gave a rodent's rectum about where you were born, if your English was bad, if you took home the curdled 1/3 pint free milk (to make cheese I later found out), if you went to ethnic classes on Saturdays to learn folk dancing etc.
Happy New Year everyone :)
Planning for the future should current technology fail (no power) is an interesting exercise.